Sunday, November 30, 2008

Economic Data in Coming Week

On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management will release its manufacturing survey for November. Construction spending figures for October will also be released.

Tuesday will feature U.S. auto sales while Wednesday will bring the November ADP employment survey of the private sector, productivity figures for the third quarter and the ISM's November survey of the service sector of the economy.

Also on Wednesday, the Fed is expected to release its Beige Book of economic conditions, which is "likely to paint an even bleaker picture than the October report," as it captured a near seizure in credit markets "and the resulting knock-out punch to consumers and businesses," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

On Thursday will be weekly jobless claims. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also expected to speak on housing at a Fed conference in Washington.

Also on tap, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected on Thursday to make decisions on interest rates.

Friday will bring the jobs report. BMO Capital expects the economy to have shed 350,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate to have risen to 6.8%, from 6.5% in October.

Saturday, November 29, 2008

Weekend Picture Post

Some Delightful Videos for the holiday

From Comedy Central, have a laugh!

Russel Peters:
Indian vs. Chinese

Gabriel Iglesias:
Drink Driving & Presidential Election

Black Friday Sales Rise 3%

From American Research Group, Inc.: Shoppers Cut 2008 Christmas Spending Plans in Half from 2007

"Shoppers around the country say they are planning to spend an average of $431 for gifts this holiday season, down from $859 last year. The overall average planned spending is down almost 50% from 2007 and it is the lowest level of planned spending recorded by the American Research Group since 1991."

YearAverage SpendingPercent Change

2008$431-50%
2007$859-5%
2006$907-4%
2005$942-6%
2004$1,004+3%
2003$976-6%
2002$1,037-1%
2001$1,052+ 9%
2000$968+ 3%
1999$939+ 1%
1998$928+ 34%

Combined with the sharp plunge in October retail sales, this suggests a very weak fourth quarter for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and suggests that forecasts for Q4 GDP might be too high.

From Yahoo! Finance and Bloomberg:

"The nation's retailers got a much-needed sales boost during Black Friday's traditional shopathon as consumers, lured by deep discounts, spent nearly 3 percent more than they did last year.

Sales on the day after Thanksgiving rose to $10.6 billion from $10.3 billion last year, according to preliminary figures released Saturday by ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a Chicago-based research firm that tracks sales at more than 50,000 retail outlets.

While it isn't a predictor of overall holiday season sales, Black Friday is an important barometer of people's willingness to spend during the holidays. Last year, it was the biggest sales generator of the season.

But experts caution that this year's sales growth may be hard to sustain for the remainder of the holiday shopping season, which has 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas instead of the 32 last year.

Across the country, sales in the South were up 3.4 percent from last year while they climbed 2.6 percent in the Northeast."

Frontline (FRO) slashes its dividend

According to MarketWatch:

As OPEC ended its meeting without any production cut during the weekend, they decided to meet again on Dec.17 to "take any additional decision to balance oil supply and demand and to achieve market stability". Crude oil prices have been down more than 60% since its record high in July. In October, OPEC agreed to cut production targets by 1.5 million barrels a day.

Frontline on Friday reported to slash its third-quarter dividend to 50 cents a share from $2.75 and $3.00 for the first two quarters of 2008. Tanker companies pay out dividends on the profits they earn from leasing their ships on the spot market. In June and July spot, or day rates, soared to record highs, but as oil prices began plummeting so did charter rates. The stock price of Frontline has dropped 60% YoY from $72 to $29.

Frontline, Ltd., through its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership and operation of oil tankers, including oil/bulk/ore (OBO) carriers. The company primarily transports crude oil, as well as raw materials, such as coal and iron ore.

As we discussed few months ago (at that moment, the dividend is 17.6%, right now (before slash it), the dividend is 36.4%):

"When a stock pays a dividend > 7% the dividend is not safe. By the time a stock dividend is twice the CD rate the risk to the dividend is large. I'll bet that the dividend will be cut soon."

S&P Monthly Update

S&P Moving Averages: Month End Update from dshort.com:

"At November's close, the S&P 500 10-month moving average (10-MA) and exponential moving average (10-EMA) both continue to signal a cash position. In essence, when the monthly close of the index is above the moving average value, you hold equities. When the index closes below, you move to cash.

The SP&P 500 closed the month at 896.24, which is 27.1% below the 10-MA (1,229.92) and 24.5% below the 10-EMA (1,187.40). Since 1950 only once before (September 1974) has the index gapped more than 25% below the 10-MA."



Please also read "A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation" (Please download the PDF format) from Mebane Faber explaining in detail on longer term monthly MA timing strategy and its performance against buy and hold.

Friday, November 28, 2008

Everything About China - Calculated Risk

Read the World Bank Quarterly Report on China

As China's unemployment rate hiking and GDP reduces to its lowest level in a decade, China is facing a critical period of merging social unrest.

From Bloomberg: China property slump

House prices in Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou are plunging, and the global economy may grind almost to a halt next year because of it.

Construction of homes, offices and factories fell at least 16.6 percent in October after rising 32.5 percent a year earlier, according to Macquarie Securities Ltd. That's squeezing an economy already slowed by recessions in the U.S., Japan and Europe that have cut demand for exports. Building is the biggest driver of China's expansion, contributing a quarter of fixed-asset investment and employing 77 million people. Real estate investment is now close to zero. Construction will contract 30 percent next year after expanding 9 percent in the first three quarters of 2008.

In 2005, China vaulted past the U.K. to become the world's fourth-largest economy, after expansion averaged 9.9 percent annually for the previous 30 years. GDP has increased 69-fold since free market began in 1978. China accounted for 27 percent of global growth last year.

Black Friday Market

Market extends its gain for five consecutive days and ends up higher in a short trading day today. We have not seen a five consecutive up days in 2008 at all. This is the best performance week since 1974, surged 12% in a week; however, the worst November since 2000, dropped 7.4%.

Even more impressive, the Dow gained 1,277 points, or 17%, in just five sessions, marking its best five-day percentage gain since 1932, and its best five-day point gain on record.

S&P is up 1% to 896. It breaks its downtrend in November, and is higher than its 10 and 20 DMA.

Today is the Black Friday, the biggest shopping day in a year. There are a lot of crazy deals provided by the retailers, such as blu-ray player for $99, and 50" Panasonic Plasma-HDTV for $899.

After rebounding from the 2002-2003 lows strongly, are we going to see the market continue its uptrend in December? VIX is down to 55 from its record high of 90.

Let's wait for the Black Friday retail data to come out.

Saturday, November 22, 2008

Friday, November 21, 2008

California Unemployment Rate Spikes

From LA Times: California unemployment jumps to 8.2%, third-highest in the U.S.:

Reporting from Los Angeles and Sacramento -- California's unemployment rate soared to a 14-year high in October, hitting 8.2%, and economists predicted that it could rise substantially over the next year and a half.

The state's economy shed 26,400 people from its payroll last month, raising the total number of lost jobs to 101,300 since October 2007, the California Employment Development Department reported Friday.

And the situation is about to get worse, predicted Ross DeVol, director of regional economics at the Santa Monica-based Milken Institute. The unemployment rate is seen reaching 9.9% in the first quarter of 2010, with the loss of 360,000 more jobs before then.

Sunday, November 16, 2008

Trading Golden Rule

"Always place an inital stop-loss at 7% below your entry price on any new position. Always! Always! Don't look back and don't second-guess yourself. Wait a couple of days for your emotions to cool and then use that time to analyze your mistake before trying again.

In some cases, you will get stopped out on the same day you buy. (Today probably would've been one of those days.) So it goes. But if you fail to take your medicine early, you can get into big trouble fast. Biting the bullet quickly if you guess wrong is far better than finding yourself trapped with a big loss in a losing trade.

This is the most difficult discipline of investing: taking your losses early while they are still small. I have suffered greatly (as many have) by trying to be a hero and fighting this sell discipline. It's always the same tale of woe... "should've bailed out at $such and such a price" instead of riding it down to the bottom hoping to get out even.

Once you have a profit, keep your stop set at your entry price. Never let a profit turn into a loss. Never! Never! If the trade really starts making nice gains, follow it up with a trailing stop at the previous day's low. Remember, your primary objective is to stay with the momentum. If the price dips below the prior day's intraday low, it's a good indication that momentum is waning.

Finally, don't ever expect to get in at the bottom or out at the top. You will kill yourself emotionally with all the "woulda coulda shoulda" profits that you didn't make. The idea is to catch the middle bulk of the move. Don't try to squeeze out every last dime if you've made a nice chunk.

Suppose you were to buy SSO at the open on any given day since October 1st. The average range from the open to the intraday low has been 6.4% over these 40 trading days. With only one exception, when the price fell more than 7% from the open to the day's low, it continued to move lower in the subsequent 6 days (average) for an average loss of 25%. Those quick 7% losses look pretty good by comparison.

As for entry points, I personally prefer to buy when the fast stochastic oscillator (both %K and %D) dips below 20, indicating a short-term oversold condition. You can use your own favorite indicator or just your gut feeling. The most important thing to keep in mind is not "where" to get in, but "how" to get out. Unless you have steely resolve to exercise a ruthless sell discipline, you would be better off staying in cash."

Saturday, November 15, 2008

Monday, November 10, 2008

Will vs. Trust: Which fits you better?


Will vs. Trust, which is better? Will
subjects to probate proceedings and the cost could be substantial, while Trust costs more to prepare. Is a lawyer needed in preparing Will or Trust? or can use the legal services provided by Susan Orman or Legal Zoom?

From Legal Zoom:

"What Is a Will?

A will is a written document—signed and witnessed—that indicates how your property will be disposed at the time of your death. It is revocable and subject to amendment at any time during your lifetime. A will that contains a trust can provide after-death property management and be used for estate planning. It does not provide the same pre-death management as a trust but a general, durable power of attorney used in conjunction with a will can provide similar functions. A will also can provide the same estate tax savings as a living trust. The pre- and after-death management and tax savings of the two can be identical.

What Is a Living Trust?

A Living Trust provides lifetime and after-death property management or carry out tax-related estate planning. If you are serving as your own trustee, the trust instrument will provide for a successor upon your death or incapacity. Court intervention is not required. Livings trusts also are used to manage property. If a person is disabled by accident or illness, the successor trustee will manage the trust property. As a result, the expense, publicity and inconvenience of court-supervised protection of your estate is avoided

If a living trust is properly written and funded you can:
· Avoid probate on your assets;
· Name a guardian and make provisions for minor children;
· Plan for the possibility of your own incapacity;
· Control what happens to your property after you are gone;
· Use it for any size estate; and
· Prevent your financial affairs from becoming a matter of public record.

While a trust sounds appealing there are drawbacks. A living trust is more expensive to set up than a typical will because it must be actively managed after it is created. This estate plan has no effect on any taxes—income, gift or estate. Most importantly, however, a living trust is useless unless it is funded. A living trust only can control those assets that have been placed into it. If your assets have not been transferred or you should die without funding the trust, the trust will be of no benefit as it will still be subject to probate and there may be significant estate tax issues.

Trust vs. Will Considerations

There are many positive reasons to establish a trust but do not overlook the fact that it will involve more upfront effort and expense to set it up properly. To determine if you should make the extra effort and invest in the expense of a trust, answer these questions.

Is informal probate an available option? Most states have an expedited or simplified form of probate for estates under a certain dollar threshold (that dollar value varies by state). If your estate could pass under an expedited form of probate, or if you live in a state where probate is not a complex or burdensome process, a will could be appropriate.

Do you own more than one piece of real property? If so, you may want to consider a living trust since each property will likely be subject to some form of probate.

Do you have minor children? If you do have children, a trust may be appropriate. It allows you to name a guardian for any minor children (so does a will) to establish provisions specifying particular life events when a child will be entitled to any assets held in trust.

Do you have children, grandchildren or other dependents with special needs? In those instances the access or control those heirs have over their inherited property may need to be limited. With a standard will your property can be passed on to those heirs but a will alone does not allow you to exercise much control over their use of the property.

Will your estate be subject to estate taxes? If the value of your estate (all possessions including home, life insurance benefits, retirement accounts) will be $1.5 million or higher (as of 2004 and 2005) you may wish to consider setting up a trust with tax planning provisions, such as an AB or an ABC trust.

Will you actively manage your estate plan? If not, a living trust may not be a suitable solution. Again, a trust will only be beneficial if assets are transferred into it.

So what is best for you? In many respects, a living trust and a will accomplish similar objectives. A trust, however, allows you to realize other objectives that a will cannot. But those advantages don’t come without a price. Whether or not a living trust is better for you than a will depends on whether the additional advantages are worth the cost. When choosing, remember one size does not fit all. What is right for one person may not be right for everyone. Your estate plan should be prepared in a way that best meets the needs of you and your family."

Saturday, November 8, 2008

Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Commercial Property Bonds vs. Corporate Bonds. Which is better?

Many corporate bonds are offering high-yield returns right now, trading less than its face value while still relative stable. Commercial real estate starts to get hit hard while office and mall vacancy rate shooting to the roof and it is not going to get recovered in anytime soon. Which is relative better? Commercial Property Bond or Corporate Bond? Is Commercial Property Bond going to become junk bond and worth almost nothing just like residential?

According to CNBC:

"Commercial real estate—like its much bigger residential cousin—is starting to get hammered by the credit crisis and slumping economy. But for investors, the news isn't all bad.

Regional banks and some real estate investment trusts, or REITs, are likely to get hit hard as delinquencies on commercial real estate loans rise. But oddly, commercial mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, are offering outsized gains with less risk than you might think.

Commercial-mortgage securities are in far better shape than their residential counterparts, even though they've been sold off as investors dump anything related to real estate. That's because the underwriting standards have typically been tighter for CMBS, especially in recent years when people could get residential mortgages with little or no documentation.

Roughly 80 percent of CMBS bonds are still rated Triple A. They're also structured so that investors are largely insulated from anything but large-scale defaults.

Another reason is that investors get much more information about the health of the commercial mortgages, allowing them to bypass the credit rating agencies."

Saturday, November 1, 2008

Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Rogers International Commodity Index

The Rogers International Commodity Index (RICI) (Yahoo Finance ^RCT) is a composite, U.S. dollar-based, total return index created by James Beeland Rogers, Jr. (“Rogers”) on July 31, 1998. The RICI was designed to meet the need for consistent investing in a broad based international vehicle; it represents the value of a basket of commodities consumed in the global economy, ranging from agricultural to energy to metal products. The value of this basket is tracked via futures contracts on 36 different exchange-traded physical commodities, quoted in four currencies, listed on eleven exchanges in five countries.

Below is a current list of the futures contracts comprising the RICI, together with their respective symbols, exchanges, currencies and initial weightings:

Contract Exchange Currency Initial Weighting
Crude Oil NYMEX USD 21.00%
IPE Brent ICE USD 14.00%
Wheat CBOT USD 7.00%
Aluminum LME USD 4.00%
Copper LME USD 4.00%
Corn CBOT USD 4.75%
Heating Oil NYMEX USD 1.80%
IPE Gasoil ICE USD 1.20%
RBOB Gasoline NYMEX USD 3.00%
Natural Gas NYMEX USD 3.00%
Cotton NYCE USD 4.05%
Soybeans CBOT USD 3.25%
Gold COMEX USD 3.00%
Live Cattle CME USD 2.00%
Coffee CSCE USD 2.00%
Zinc LME USD 2.00%
Silver COMEX USD 2.00%
Lead LME USD 2.00%
Rice CBOT USD 0.50%
Soybean Oil CBOT USD 2.00%
Platinum COMEX USD 1.80%
Lean Hogs CME USD 1.00%
Sugar CSCE USD 2.00%
Azuki Beans TGE JPY 0.25%
Cocoa CSCE USD 1.00%
Nickel LME USD 1.00%
Tin LME USD 1.00%
Greasy Wool SFE AUS 0.25%
Rubber TOCOM JPY 1.00%
Lumber CME USD 1.00%
Barley WCE CAD 0.27%
Canola WCE CAD 0.67%
Orange Juice NYCE USD 0.66%
Oats CBOT USD 0.50%
Palladium COMEX USD 0.30%
Soybean Meal CBOT USD 0.75%

How to invest in RICI? Can it be invested in Mutual Fund?

Sunday, October 26, 2008