From American Research Group, Inc.: Shoppers Cut 2008 Christmas Spending Plans in Half from 2007
"Shoppers around the country say they are planning to spend an average of $431 for gifts this holiday season, down from $859 last year. The overall average planned spending is down almost 50% from 2007 and it is the lowest level of planned spending recorded by the American Research Group since 1991."
| Year | Average Spending | Percent Change |
| 2008 | $431 | -50% |
| 2007 | $859 | -5% |
| 2006 | $907 | -4% |
| 2005 | $942 | -6% |
| 2004 | $1,004 | +3% |
| 2003 | $976 | -6% |
| 2002 | $1,037 | -1% |
| 2001 | $1,052 | + 9% |
| 2000 | $968 | + 3% |
| 1999 | $939 | + 1% |
| 1998 | $928 | + 34% |
Combined with the sharp plunge in October retail sales, this suggests a very weak fourth quarter for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and suggests that forecasts for Q4 GDP might be too high.
From Yahoo! Finance and Bloomberg:
"The nation's retailers got a much-needed sales boost during Black Friday's traditional shopathon as consumers, lured by deep discounts, spent nearly 3 percent more than they did last year.
Sales on the day after Thanksgiving rose to $10.6 billion from $10.3 billion last year, according to preliminary figures released Saturday by ShopperTrak RCT Corp., a Chicago-based research firm that tracks sales at more than 50,000 retail outlets.
While it isn't a predictor of overall holiday season sales, Black Friday is an important barometer of people's willingness to spend during the holidays. Last year, it was the biggest sales generator of the season.
But experts caution that this year's sales growth may be hard to sustain for the remainder of the holiday shopping season, which has 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas instead of the 32 last year.
Across the country, sales in the South were up 3.4 percent from last year while they climbed 2.6 percent in the Northeast."
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