"At November's close, the S&P 500 10-month moving average (10-MA) and exponential moving average (10-EMA) both continue to signal a cash position. In essence, when the monthly close of the index is above the moving average value, you hold equities. When the index closes below, you move to cash.
The SP&P 500 closed the month at 896.24, which is 27.1% below the 10-MA (1,229.92) and 24.5% below the 10-EMA (1,187.40). Since 1950 only once before (September 1974) has the index gapped more than 25% below the 10-MA."
Please also read "A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation" (Please download the PDF format) from Mebane Faber explaining in detail on longer term monthly MA timing strategy and its performance against buy and hold.
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