Friday, December 26, 2008

Oil Could be on a way to $20 a Barrel

From CNBC: Oil Could be on Way to $20 a Barrel: Gulf CEO

The steep drop in oil prices may not be over yet, says the CEO of Gulf Oil.

The price of US light, sweet crude could yet move as low as $25, and even $20 if current conditions persist.

Several factors are critical in the move lower, particularly the pressure set against traders in the oil markets, and the control sovereign foreign governments, as opposed to private entities, have exerted on the market since the summer price shock that sent gasoline prices at the pump above $4 a gallon.

"They have a tendency to sell more on the way down, not less," Petrowski said of the governments ruling the energy trade.

In all, he thinks those who believe oil is due for a rebound aren't seeing the global economic factors that are playing into energy prices.

From CNBC: Oil Rises above $36 after UAE cuts supplies

Oil rose above $36 a barrel on Friday after the United Arab Emirates joined leading exporter Saudi Arabia in deepening supply curbs in line with OPEC's biggest ever output cut announced last week.

Abu Dhabi National Oil (ADNOC), the main producer in the UAE, the world's fifth-largest oil exporter, said it would cut supplies of February Murban and Upper Zakum allocations by 15 percent and Lower Zakum and Umm Shaif by 10 percent each.

From Yahoo! Finance: Retail gasoline prices drift to 58-month low
Retail gasoline prices tumbled Friday to the lowest level in nearly five years (58-month low). And while crude futures rose, analysts believed it was a temporary pause in an extended, downward arc as the recession spreads. "We're paying about a billion dollars per day less than we were in July" for gasoline.

Pump prices were driven down mostly because Americans are staying home more. The travel habits of Americans are "fundamentally changing" as drivers clocked 9 billion fewer miles in October, even as gas prices plunged.

Crude futures are down more than 60% so far this year, poised for their worst year on record since crude started futures trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange in 1983.

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