Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Bear Market Bottoming Analysis

Great chart and analysis of previous bear market bottoming processes.

But notice this time we might also violated the Rules of Double Tops: "If you make a double top and retrace then the retrace is normally to the start of the move to FIRST top. In this case that started at 450-460. Also, this counts as third down of five Elliot wave move (on monthly). The likely stop for wave 5 is support below where we stopped for wave 3 and a leg down about half and that puts us down in the 450 range also."

From dshort:com: The Bear Bottoming Process

"As the charts show, bear markets typically spent six weeks to eight months working though the bottoming process. Rather than a sharp V-shaped decline and recovery, these bears bounced around the lower range before transforming into the next bull market. As our review of recoveries suggest, patience will be required while today's bear thrashes around his bottom."

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