Thursday, December 18, 2008

GE News Drives Market Down in last hour

From Yahoo! Finance: S&P says chance GE could lose "AAA" in 2 years:

Standard & Poor's on Thursday changed its outlook on General Electric Corp and its finance arm to negative because of concerns about funding at its capital unit, and said there is at least a one-in-three chance it will cut GE's credit rating from the top "AAA" in the next two years.

"In addition, fundamentals-based earnings and cash flow could decline sufficiently during the next two years to warrant a downgrade," the rating agency said. "We will continue to monitor GECC's success in executing on its funding and liquidity plans in light of capital market turmoil."

Hedge Funds closing is a major reason for the big sell off we have seen in September, October and November. According to Yahoo! Finance: Hedge Funds Close at Record Rate:

The number of hedge funds liquidated in the third quarter rose to 344, which is more than three times the 105 liquidations in the third quarter of 2007. It's also 77 more than the previous record of 267 liquidations in the fourth quarter of 2006.

The data also showed that 693 hedge funds were closed in the first nine months of the year versus 409 in the same period last year. That's an increase of 70% and represents nearly 7% of all hedge funds, according to HFR.

Indeed, in the third quarter, the number of hedge funds closing shop exceeded the number of funds launched for the first time since HFR started tracking this data in 1996.

At this rate, hedge fund liquidations are on track to reach 920 for the full year, the report said. That would outpace the 563 liquidations last year, and could top the previous record of 848 in 2005.

From Bonddad: Today's Market

-- Prices are right at the top of a downward sloping channel
-- Prices have been increasing since the end of November
-- The 10 day SMA is rising, it has crossed the 20 day SMA and it is about to cross over the 50 day SMA
-- Prices are above the 10, 20 and 50 day SMA
-- The 20 day SMA is now increasing
Bottom line: the markets are lining up for a rally.

From U.S.Treasury - Daily Treasury Yield Curve

No comments: