Friday, December 5, 2008

Delinquency, Foreclosure Jump, CEO Confidence Plunges

From Yahoo! Finance: 3Q auto-loan delinquency rate jumps 15.9 percent

The percentage of auto loans that were past due 60 days or more rose 15.9 percent in the third quarter compared to last year, according to credit reporting agency TransUnion. The rate rose to 0.80 percent of outstanding loans, from 0.69 percent in 2007's third quarter.

Delinquencies shot up 17.6 percent from the second quarter of 2008, when they stood at 0.68 percent of outstanding loans. And TransUnion expects even more people to have trouble paying their auto loans, projecting the rate will rise another 10 percent by the end of the year, to 0.88 percent of outstanding loans. And the rate is likely to top 1 percent early in 2009.

Like credit card delinquency rates, the number of people falling behind on paying their auto loans tends to be cyclical, said TransUnion officials say. But the fourth quarter is typically the least problematic. Auto loan delinquencies haven't been above 1 percent since early in 2001.

Delinquencies were highest in Mississippi at 1.46 percent, and Louisiana, at 1.41 percent. California, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Arizona and Georgia all had rates over 1 percent. The states with the lowest auto-loan delinquency rates were Wyoming, at 0.29 percent, North Dakota, at 0.36 percent and South Dakota, at 0.46 percent.

Average auto debt also increased for the third quarter, up about 1 percent to $12,861, from $12,722 in the year-ago quarter. Average debt was basically flat from the 2008 second quarter, average when it stood at $12,869. Nevada had the highest average auto loan, at $15,774, followed by Washington D.C. at $15,433. The lowest average was in Nebraska, at $10,944.

From Yahoo!Finance: Home Loan troubles break records again:

A record one in 10 American homeowners with a mortgage were either at least a month behind on their payments or in foreclosure at the end of September as the source of housing market pressure shifted to the crumbling U.S. economy.

The Mortgage Bankers Association said Friday the percentage of loans at least a month overdue or in foreclosure was up from 9.2 percent in the April-June quarter, and up from 7.3 percent a year earlier.

Job losses are already having an impact in rising delinquency rates for traditional 30-year fixed rate loans made to borrowers with strong credit. Total delinquencies on those loans rose to 3.35 percent in September from 3.07 percent at the end of June, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.

From CNBC: CEO Confidence Plunges as Most Plan Cutbacks

The Business Roundtable's quarterly CEO Economic Outlook Index tumbled to 16.5 in the quarter, the biggest drop it has ever taken, to the lowest point by far in the survey's six-year history. A reading below 50 means that CEOs expect contraction rather than growth.

The index had stood at 78.8 in the third quarter; the prior low of 49.3 was recorded in the first quarter of 2003.

The CEOs, who were polled between Nov. 3 and Nov. 17, said they expect the U.S. economy to be flat overall next year, with recovery in the second half offsetting a weak start.

The majority, 60 percent, expect to cut their U.S. head count over the next six months. Fifty-two percent expect to cut U.S. capital spending and 45 percent foresee a decline in sales over that time period.

Business Roundtable's 160 member companies together employ almost 10 million people and generate $5 trillion in annual revenue.

U.S. data due out tomorrow is expected to show that employers cut 340,000 jobs in November, according to a Reuters poll of economists.

Over time, the cuts become part of a self-reinforcing cycle, hurting consumer spending—which is responsible for the lion's share of U.S. economic activity—and further pinching corporate results, economists said.

A survey by Chief Executive magazine found that 75 percent of CEOs expected employment to fall over the next quarter.

Another study by The Hackett Group predicted that some 350,000 U.S. jobs in corporate finance, information technology and other back-office functions would move offshore to India and other low-cost countries over the next two years.

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